There was some disconnect. Mississippi had 13,000 high-school dropouts per year, but it was reporting to the U.S. Department of Education that its graduation rate was 87%. Then came the study from Promise Alliance, a nonprofit group working to keep kids in school (www.promisealliance.org), that found on-time graduation rates in Detroit to be 24.9% and 30.5% in Indianapolis. Schools boards there were also surprised, given their reported rates to the USDE, which hovered around 70%. What happened?  The schools administrators were grappling with the classic problem of pressure. We want results, we emphasize results, and we reward results. So, those under pressure to get those results find a way. Higher graduation rates bring rewards to the districts. Lower test scores take away rewards.  School districts had their goal: Get those students who bring the test scores down out of school, but keep reported graduation rates high. Oh, the means they found to affect those means. Some states only counted students who dropped out during 12th grade. Turns out that if you make it to 12th grade, you tend to hang in there for that last year.  But measuring what happens from student entry in 9th grade does paint a different picture. We lose most of them at grades 10 and 11. Other states counted as graduates those students who left high school but made sincere enough promises to earn their GEDs. As a result, overstatement of graduation rates by the states ranged from 10 to 24%.Â
The remedy is the same one Congress, the SEC, and other regulators use when businesses do not paint an accurate picture of their finances: Regulation. Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings announced a mandatory federal standard on reporting graduation rates. No more graduation rate engineering because the USDE now determines who counts, who doesn’t count, when we measure, how we measure, and on and on.Â
“Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure!” The old Southern adage proves to be true. The real lesson, however, is watching those incentive programs that create manipulators. Bad apples or bad barrel? We shouldn’t leave false impressions, and the manipulation of the graduation rates was just plain wrong. But good leaders monitor the culture and incentives that can create a bad barrel for good apples. Make the goals clear, but draw the lines they cannot cross to get those results. And remind them of your vision and purpose: getting kids to finish high school. The real goal was lost in the quest to meet the numbers. So it is with business. The real goal of creating real value, for customers and shareholders, is lost in settling for just meeting numbers. Â